--- title: "American Airlines 2026 Outlook: Why a Record-Revenue Year Still Ends in a Loss" description: "Fuel costs have swallowed American's record sales, and the airline's own numbers show how much, and what it plans to do next." url: https://travel.skoop.news/american-airlines-forecasts-adjusted-2026-loss-as-fuel-costs-32c3d2/ published: 2026-10-23T04:04:30.986673-04:00 modified: 2026-10-23T04:04:30.986673-04:00 section: "Travel" publisher: "skoop.news" language: en keywords: ["American", "American Airlines Group", "Excluding US", "Robert Isom", "GAAP", "Delta", "Southwest", "United", "airline", "miles"] hashtags: ["#AmericanAirlinesGroup", "#ExcludingUS", "#RobertIsom", "#Airline", "#travel"] image: https://thumb.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b3/Singapore_Changi_Airport_Terminal_4_%28165259%29.jpg/1280px-Singapore_Changi_Airport_Terminal_4_%28165259%29.jpg?utm_source=commons.wikimedia.org&utm_campaign=imageinfo&utm_content=thumbnail --- # American Airlines 2026 Outlook: Why a Record-Revenue Year Still Ends in a Loss > Fuel costs have swallowed American's record sales, and the airline's own numbers show how much, and what it plans to do next. Published 2026-10-23 · Travel, [skoop.news](https://skoop.news/) ## In brief - American Airlines Group booked record third-quarter revenue of US$16.3bn, up 19.3% from a year earlier, and still forecast an adjusted loss for 2026 on October 22 [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). - Under GAAP, American's Q3 net loss was US$269m, or US$0.41 per diluted share [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). - Fuel expense rose US$1.9bn, or 67.5%, year over year in the third quarter [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). ## A record quarter that still lost money American Airlines Group booked record third-quarter revenue of US$16.3bn, up 19.3% from a year earlier, and still forecast an adjusted loss for 2026 on October 22 [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). If you fly American or follow the airline's finances, fuel is the reason behind the gap [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). This piece covers the quarter's numbers, the fourth-quarter guidance, how the year's outlook has slid, and what the airline says it will do about it. ## The third-quarter numbers Under GAAP, American's Q3 net loss was US$269m, or US$0.41 per diluted share [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). Excluding US$87m in net special items after tax, the adjusted loss was US$182m, or US$0.28 per diluted share [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). A year earlier, the Q3 loss was $114 million [[2]](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/). The revenue was above the high end of previously announced guidance [[2]](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/). Total unit revenue, which measures revenue relative to available seat miles, rose 14.5% year over year [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). ## Where the money went: fuel Fuel expense rose US$1.9bn, or 67.5%, year over year in the third quarter [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). American paid an average of US$3.85 per gallon during the quarter [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). Over the first nine months of 2026, the airline has paid around $4.4 billion extra in fuel [[2]](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/). The fourth quarter looks costlier. American's fuel assumption is approximately US$4.70 per gallon, based on the forward fuel curve as of October 19 [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). At that price, it estimates the quarter's fuel bill would rise about US$2.8bn from the same period in 2025 [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). ## The fourth-quarter forecast American expects fourth-quarter revenue to increase 19.5% to 22.5% from a year earlier [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). Capacity, measured in available seat miles, is forecast to grow 5.5% to 6.5% [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). It forecasts an adjusted fourth-quarter loss of US$0.50 to US$1.10 per diluted share [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). The adjusted full-year forecast excludes net special items. It is not a forecast of American's GAAP result [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). ## How the year got here American's initial 2026 earnings-per-share guidance was $1.70 to $2.70 [[2]](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/). After Q1 earnings, it dropped to -$0.40 to $1.10 [[2]](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/). After Q2 earnings, it was updated again to -$0.65 to $0.65 [[2]](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/). The quarterly results show the same slide. American posted a net loss of $382 million in Q1, a net profit of $71 million in Q2, and a net loss of $269 million in Q3 [[2]](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/). It states it has lost $581 million so far in 2026 and expects another loss in the fourth quarter [[2]](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/). ## Premium seats and savings Premium revenue rose 22.9% year over year in the third quarter, while managed corporate revenue rose 27.6% [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). Premium products generate roughly half of American's ticket revenue from approximately 30% of seats [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). Through its narrowbody retrofit program, American expects premium seats to reach 40% of narrowbody seating in the coming years [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). Its multiyear efficiency program is expected to reach nearly US$1bn in annual run rate savings by year-end [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). American's four commercial strategy pillars are to elevate the customer experience, grow the global network, drive premium revenue, and lead in loyalty [[2]](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/). CEO Robert Isom said the focus remains on restoring profitability and building a stronger American for the long term [[2]](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/). ## What it means for you If you fly American, watch the network. The airline said elevated fuel prices would lead to slower network growth in 2027 than in 2026 [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). If you fly in premium cabins, the retrofit program is meant to lift premium seats to 40% of narrowbody seating in the coming years [[1]](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs). For context, Delta, Southwest and United all still plan to make healthy profits in 2026 despite higher fuel prices [[2]](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/). The next numbers to check are American's fourth-quarter results, which the airline expects to be another loss [[2]](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/). ## Sources 1. [American Airlines Forecasts Adjusted 2026 Loss as Fuel Costs Rise](https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/american-airlines-2026-loss-q3-fuel-costs) — Airways 2. [American Airlines Expects Big 2026 Loss, Focused On “Restoring Profitability”](https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-2026-loss-focused-restoring-profitability/) — One Mile at a Time Image: Photo (illustrative): Moheen Reeyad / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Singapore_Changi_Airport_Terminal_4_(165259).jpg) --- Written from the sources above and checked twice (rules and an independent model) before publishing. How we work: https://skoop.news/how-we-work/ · Corrections: https://skoop.news/corrections/